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- February 2004 -



February 27, 2004 link

I've been wrestling with
whom I'm gonna vote for Tuesday, and I've decided to vote for John Kerry. In their endorsement today, The New York Times editorial board articulates well some of my own reasons for voting Kerry:
Mr. Kerry, one of the Senate's experts in foreign affairs, exudes maturity and depth. He can discuss virtually any issue of security or international affairs with authority. What his critics see as an inability to take strong, clear positions seems to us to reflect his appreciation that life is not simple. He understands the nuances and shades of gray in both foreign and domestic policy. While he still has trouble turning out snappy sound bites, we don't detect any difficulty in laying down a clear bottom line.  His campaigning skills are perhaps not as strong as his intellectual ones, but they are pretty good and getting better. Early in the race he alienated some audiences with brittle, patronizing lectures. But he has improved tremendously over the last few months. His answers are focused and to the point, and his speeches far more compelling.

If Mr. Kerry wins the nomination, the Bush administration will undoubtedly attempt to paint Mr. Kerry as a typical Massachusetts liberal, but his thinking defies such easy categorization. His positions come from mainstream American thought, centrism of the old school. He has always worried over budget deficits. His record on the environment is extremely strong. He is a gun owner and hunter who supports effective gun control laws, a combat veteran who, having seen a great deal of death, opposes  capital punishment. A sense of balance comes through when he is talking.  Unfortunately, so far in this campaign Mr. Kerry has shown little interest in being daring, expressing a thought that is unexpected or quirky on even minor issues. We wish we could see a little of the political courage of the Vietnam hero who came back to lead the fight against the war.


Like most Democrats, my primary concern in this election is electability. But that's not why I choose Kerry. When I weigh his and Edwards' "electable" and "non-electable" qualities, it's always even. Since there's no clear cut winner there, I go with the guy who makes the best President.

John Edwards is an extraordinarily attractive, persuasive candidate and he'd make a great President tomorrow. But he doesn't have Kerry's grasp of foreign and domestic policy, and I don't think he's as prepared as Kerry to be commander-in-chief or to do the necessary congressional arm twisting to actualize his policies.

Kerry's superiority in his intricate understanding of the issues has been clear throughout the campaign, even when he looked like a sure political loser. It was also clear in last night's debate, as well as during his interview with The NY Times board that compelled them to pick him over Edwards.

I have no doubt that Kerry's fascination with policy minutiae and his complexity as a politician and as a man are sometimes going to be political obstacles for him in this campaign. But the flip side of those qualities is that they're an executive asset. From day one, he'll fully understand and be able to make fine distinctions upon hearing briefs from his advisers, and he'll make informed decisions at every step. Right now, we see and feel the consequences of an incurious President fully at the mercy of his advisers.

Also, what kind of a man opposes the Vietnam War in his late teens/early 20's, volunteers for it anyway so nobody has to go in his place, sacrifices his own life to save other men's lives, and returns to lead the political fight against it? A good man, with a strong conscience, who loves his country.

Republicans will take controversial things he said in his 1971 congressional testimony opposing the war and try to paint him unpatriotic, but they'll fail politically and substantively. There's no getting around the fact that history has proven Kerry right in his strong, principled opposition to the continuance of that war.

Kerry also has the most realistic, far-reaching health care plan around right now. I think that's the country's #1 problem, and he has the best chance to solve it.

And to all those who would accuse him of always choosing the most politically convenient side of an issue, look at his opposition to the death penalty. He's one of the last high-profile Democrats courageous enough to stand against it, and that's a real distinction between him and Edwards. I'm convinced that if I were stranded forever on a desert island with Bill Clinton and John Edwards, they'd acknowledge that pro-death penalty arguments don't really hold, but opposition to it is such a political liability that it's not worth the bother. I admire John Kerry for defending death penalty opposition throughout his political career. You can say that he's from "liberal" Massachusetts, but even there it was a monkey on his back during his 1996 campaign and he took the hits for it.

Kerry's the one.

By the way, Kerry also made some news in the debate, but I haven't heard anybody pick up on it yet. He said, for the first time as far as I've heard, that he'd sign an executive order within days of taking office that would ban government officials from registering as lobbyists until after they've been out of office for 5 years. That's a really good, progressive, sweeping change, the kind that makes government measurably cleaner both instantly and in the long term.

Here's George W. Bush on gay marriage during the 2000 campaign:
LARRY KING: If a state were voting on gay marriage, you would suggest to that state not to approve it?
GEORGE W. BUSH: The state can do what they want to do. Don't try to trap me into this state's issue, like you're trying to get me into.

His position seems to have evolved somewhat dramatically, eh?

Karenna Gore Schiff, who'd be a perfectly adequate first daughter right now if it weren't for Ralph Nader, made a really incisive argument against Nader the other day:
Ralph Nader's main message is a cynical one, more about tearing down than building up. So for those who believe in a progressive agenda, let's not allow the imperfect be the enemy of the good. For those who don't, let's work toward a clear and honest debate about our differences. And in the end, let's recognize the plain truth: A vote for Ralph Nader is not a vote for some Utopian principle. It is a vote for George W. Bush.

I agree with her completely.

Let me mention another election 2000 related activity. All the controversy surrounding the Florida vote count robbed the country of a very healthy, necessary debate on the existence of the electoral college. I think there are good arguments on both sides, but it's a shame we didn't get to have the debate then because there's a realistic chance the winner of the popular vote this year could lose again. I don't think it's probable, but it's highly possible.

I can tell you this: as a Gore voter in California, it pisses me off that an individual Floridian's vote was worth infinitely more than mine. And it will doubly piss me off if it happens twice.

But them's the rules, I guess.

This Washington Post tidbit offers the worst news in the history of man:
Moralist Bill Bennett has a new career as a talk-radio host: He's expected to announce today that he's launching a daily national show, filling three hours of air with chatter about politics, entertainment, sports, whatever.

Whenever I listen to blowhard Bennett it bums me out because I become acutely aware of sin. Not mine, but his.

Another disgusting, sinful moralist, Antonin Scalia, is in the LA Times yet again for taking more hunting trips with people who have business before his court. Read the whole thing, but it seems pretty unethical to me. It'll be interesting to see if Kerry or Kerry surrogates start tagging Scalia with these ethical lapses, because associating Scalia with these recent controversies is a good way to indirectly remind people about the 2000 election controversy.  


February 26, 2004 link

5 Thoughts on Gay Marriage

1.    On dailykos.com, they've been referring to the Musgrave Amendment as The Hate Amendment, which is apt. Andrew Sullivan – a gay conservative who's as good a thinker on this as anybody – invoked the flag amendment today when he referred to it as "the fag amendment." I don't think I can get away with using the slang perjorative like Andrew can, though, so I'll adopt Hate.

2.    The Hate Amendment is already dead, because 34 (and counting) senators have committed against it, including 8 Republicans (here's another list, too, less current but with more specifics). This crosses the 1/3 of the senate threshold needed to defeat an amendment. Even Tom DeLay and several other House conservatives have been lukewarm on it. So Bush/Rove know they're not actually gonna win on this. Why are they pushing it, then? In part to secure their white evangelical base, in part as an aggressive political wedge issue, and in part to further trumpet their campaign slogan, "steady leadership in times of change." They want to cram the idea that Bush is uncompromising and apolitical down our throats, which may have a smidgeon more truth to it than their uniternotadivider bullshit slogan in 2000, but it's just as false. His misleadership has been steady.

Besides their base, though, favoring Hate is a real political risk. Not only are young people mostly against it, but so are Independents (oddly enough, in numbers greater than Democrats). Most political observers think Independents and moderates are the keys to winning the election, but Karl Rove may think it's entirely about getting the several million white evangelicals who didn't show up for him last time.

3.    I think this is the Hate's language, as last composed:
Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution or the constitution of any state, nor state or federal law, shall be construed to require that marital status or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon unmarried couples or groups.

The wording, of course, might change. I'm no lawyer, but in its present form couldn't that "legal incidents thereof" part be used as a judicial rationale to prohibit civil unions?

4.    I'm too lazy to look it up right now, but I think Joe Klein wrote in Time that George W. Bush is "The War President" – "The Culture War President." That's right. And it's good for Democrats that Bush comes off his White House perch and starts tangling. That's something candidates do, not Presidents.

5.    Here's a freshly scanned picture of Bush's first draft of Hate, from his own hand.  

The state of the Democratic race right now is this: John Kerry wins. He's leading big in every state except Georgia, where he leads by 8% (not an insignifigant margin). I think Edwards can win Georgia, but nowhere else, and he'll drop out as early as Tuesday night and endorse Kerry soon thereafter. Then Kerry can do the $$$$$ run in earnest, and we can all get behind him.

Calvin Trillin is right to revisit the Dan Quayle National Guard controversy:
What I'm talking about is Quayle's military service during the Vietnam War. Remember now? When Dan Quayle was chosen by George H.W. Bush to become the Republican vice presidential nominee in 1988, a firestorm broke out on the subject of whether the considerable influence of his family in Indiana had been used to get him a slot in the National Guard.

At the time it was thought that if the jackals of the press, who were in full pursuit, managed to find proof that influence had been used -- that he had been jumped over a waiting list of less than influential Hoosiers, one of whom might have gone to Vietnam in place of this cosseted rich boy and been killed -- Quayle would have had difficulty remaining on the ticket.

Quayle denied receiving preferential treatment, but he didn't quibble about what making it into the guard meant at that time. "Obviously, if you join the National Guard, you have less of a chance of going to Vietnam," he said on "Meet the Press" some time later. "I mean, it goes without saying." That's presumably what Colin Powell had in mind in "My American Journey" when he wrote, "I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well placed . . . managed to wrangle spots in Reserve and National Guard units."

But in the current furor about George W. Bush's military record it seems to be taken for granted that Bush got into the so-called Champagne unit of the Texas Air National Guard through influence. The stories begin by saying he was jumped over a 500-man waiting list. Then they quickly go on to investigate the details of his sojourn in Alabama. Using influence to get into the guard and therefore out of Vietnam is no longer disqualifying for "sons of the powerful"; it's assumed. Or could it be that Dan Quayle is judged by stricter standards than other politicians?


Compare Quayle's honesty on the subject with G.W.'s.

Optimism-inducing factoid of the day: in 2000, Bush won Ohio by only 3.6%, despite the fact that Al Gore pulled his ads and stopped spending altogether in the state 3 weeks before the election.


February 25, 2004 link

George W. Bush imagines a U.S. Constitution
that will specifically, permanently, and maliciously dispose of the possibility that Del Martin, 83, and Phyllis Lyon, 79, could achieve equality in the United States, despite the fact that the two have been in a loving, committed relationship for 51 years.

  Old Ladies In Love

Our Groping Governor

Meanwhile, our Governor could grab this woman on the tail end of a a steroid-fueled bender and marry her within a matter of minutes.











Our country's a lot better than George W. Bush imagines it.

When I was a kid, I read about the civil rights battles of the 1960's and would ask myself: would I have been one of the good white guys or one of the bad white guys? I really hoped I'd be a good white guy, one of those courageous enough to ignore the day's popular sentiment and march alongside my fellow black Americans. I even kind of lamented that I'd never get to prove my mettle, because the era had passed.

I may get my chance after all. It's painfully clear today that we're engaged in the great civil rights fight of our generation. As a nation, I hope we're ready for that fight. I know I am.

In his outrageous speech yesterday, George Bush arrogantly assumed his definition of marriage is the definition of marriage. He blatantly disregarded separation of church and state when he said, "Marriage cannot be severed from its cultural, religious and natural roots...". Civil marriage and religous marriage are separate, if related, entities, and Mr. Bush's attempt to fuse them is an attack on both. Religions have been and will continue to be entirely free to make their own  independent decisions about gay marriage.

Worst of all is the simple goal behind Bush's words: he seeks to prevent a frequently bullied minority group from ever fully joining our civil society. That's uncivil, inhumane, brutal, immoral, sinful, and whatever other adjective you can think of to express contempt.

February 24, 2004
According to 2000 CNN exit polls, if Nader had not run his votes would have gone:

Gore        48%
Bush        22%
No Vote   30%

So no Nader would have given Al Gore both Florida and New Hampshire, at least, by margins in the multiples of thousands. His assertions that he didn't cost Gore the race are ridiculous, almost as ridiculous as the nonsense about there being little difference between Democrats and Republicans.

He has pledged not to attack the Democratic nominee, though, so we'll see if he holds true on that.

Finally, Bush has come out swinging against Kerry. These Spring months will be crucial for whomever our nominee is, since he'll be in a race to define himself positively before Bush does so negatively with $100 million or so.

Trying to preempt the speech earlier yesterday, I think it's funny how Kerry invoked Bush's own stock language against terrorists, saying Bush is "on the run."

It's fair for BC Chair Marc Racicot to criticize Kerry's votes against individual weapons, but his overriding suggestion is that voting against any weapon system makes you "weak on defense," which is absurd. Kerry has a really good line where he says, "I used these weapons, so I know what works and what doesn't," but I haven't heard it lately. Time to bring that back.

I also think he's got to pound on Bush about his failure to get bin Laden at Tora Bora. It's a rarely recalled story that the press will revisit if Kerry talks about it (he criticized Bush for it shortly after it happened), and it's more truthful to say Bush is "weak on defense" because he didn't have the smarts or courage to commit the necessary American troops to get bin Laden when we had him boxed in (Bush relied upon the Northern Alliance to get him, which is the definition of weakness).

Furthermore, after bin Laden killed thousands of our citizens, why are we so respectful of Pakistan's borders when everybody knows there's still a ton of al Qaeda in Eastern Pakistan? I think Kerry's got to say it again and again and again: BUSH IS WEAK ON DEFENSE. Not just because his foreign policy is misguided, confused, simplistic, overwrought, and inept, but because he doesn't understand how the military works and is unable to make informed strategic decisions at the most important junctures. He's weak. Weak weak weak weak.

And stupid.   

If Kerry beats Edwards
, Teresa Heinz Kerry stands to be one of the most interesting characters in this campaign. The NY Times wrote her up over the weekend. It's been reported that Kerry campaign advisors are more than a little skittish about the political impact she'll have, but she's a candid, offbeat lady, and I like her.

She poses a few very interesting questions, answers to which will be important:
How will the country respond to the prospect of a Mozambican first lady?

Will she do more to humanize Kerry, or make him seem more weird?

She runs a $1.5 billion philanthropic organization, as well as possessing a $500 million+ personal fortune. Gee, do you think the Bush campaign will look for some controversial spending there?

Most importantly, she's said that if necessary she'll spend some of that ketchup to protect her "honor." How wide a net does her honor cast? How tied into her own honor is her hubby's reputation? For what purposes will the FEC allow her to spend her own money? (They've already weighed in that Kerry can't use her fortune for his campaign, but I'm sure lawyers will figure out a bunch of ways in which she could help the campaign using it legally if they need to, which I have little doubt they will).

We'll see.

Here's more on planned protests of the Republican convention in NYC this Summer. Protestors really have a great opportunity to make an impact by drowning out the Rovian propaganda. I hope they focus more on creative, organized messages – effective theater – than they do civil disobedience.

It looks like Reverand Al Sharpton is having a hell of a good time on the campaign trail. From the Washinton Post:
Democratic presidential candidate Al Sharpton, who has billed his campaign for hotel stays of more than $1,000 a night, has campaign debts totaling $485,696, including unpaid staff salaries dating to last May, finance reports show.

If he can keep up that high living, and then find a way to pour on a few more extravagances, Sharpton would be able to claim that a Sharpton administration could spend as gluttonously as a Bush administration. Nobody who studies the drunken White House spending would buy it, but he could at least make a case.

February 23, 2004
Yeah, I'd like to call Ralph Nader a lot of names right now. Egomaniacal. Self-destructive. Vain. Stupid. Liar. He is all those things. But I don't think his candidacy's gonna make much of a difference this year, for the following reasons:
1.    He's running as an Independent, not as a Green. He benefited from the Green Party's grassroots organization in 2000, but this time he'll have to do most of the organizing on his own. From what I've read, he might have real trouble getting on the ballot in several battleground states.
2.    I've only encountered a select few people who would even consider voting for Nader this year. They hang out in the message boards on Daily Kos, and while they claim to hate Bush, I've discovered in correspondence with them that they're so illogical that if it were between just Bush and the Democrat, they'd vote for Bush. If you're having trouble figuring that out, after several emails back and forth, I still am, too. Most people aren't that stupid, though, and realize what's at stake in this election. There were a lot of principled progressives, like repentantnadervoter.com, who went for Nader in 2000 that not only will vote for the Democrat this time, but also will be politically energized and committed like never before.
3.    Just hearing the name "Nader" generally reminds people of 2000 and its unfairness, which isn't good for Republicans.
4.    This was the most interesting part of Russert's Q&A:
MR. RUSSERT:  If it got down to the final days of the election and you saw that your presence on the ballot could swing the election to George Bush, might you consider stepping out and saying, "I endorse the Democrat"?

MR. NADER:  First of all, there are 40 slam-dunk states where either the Republicans or Democrats are going to win handily; that's number one.  Second, I think there's a very good chance that President Bush is going to start declining in the polls.  He's making a lot of mistakes.  People are beginning to realize that he doesn't care about the American people, although he says he does; that as a conservative president, he's presiding over and encouraging the shipment of industries and jobs to the despotic Communist regime in China; that he fabricated the basis for the war in Iraq, which is now a quagmire. And if President Bush doesn't trust the American people with the truth, why should the American people trust George W. Bush with the presidency?

Now, you gave me a hypothetical, all right?  You know how Arnold answered that hypothetical.  When that and if that eventuality occurs, in the rare event that it occurs, you can invite me back on the program, and I'll give you my answer.


Now, if there's one thing Democrats have learned about Ralph Nader, it's that we can't rely on him ever to be sensible. But that answer certainly isn't a no. So there's a scenario where Nader actually helps  our nominee: he's effective on the campaign trail talking about impeaching Bush (something Democrats would like suggest to the electorate, but can't themselves) and stuff like that and then it looks like the election might be close and he makes a big media splash on Meet the Press to endorse the Democrat and implore radicals everywhere to unify behind the Dem because Bush is the worst President in history.

Some day down the road, I'll take issue with Nader's nonsensical idealization of third party options. The bottom line is, a two party system protects minorities in ways that a multi-party system can't.

It's also worth noting that Nader has become such an albatross to the group he founded, Public Citizen, that they've had to send out a letter saying that Nader no longer has any active affiliation with them. Reportedly, their fundraising has taken a huge hit since 2000. It's pretty sad that a guy who spent so much of his life advancing progressive causes is seen as a regressive political figure by so many progressives today.

"Let's kick his ass." – James Hoffa, Jr., Teamsters President, referring to George W. Bush at a rally last week where he announced the Teamsters endorsement of John Kerry. Interestingly, the Teamsters didn't endorse Al Gore until September 7, 2000, a scant 3 months before the election.

A group called Americans for Jobs, Health Care and Progressive Values put out a really over-the-top anti-Howard Dean ad last year in Iowa tying bin Laden and Dean together. If you've read this blog before you know I'm no Dean fan, but the ad was contemptible. Oddly enough, FEC reports indicate that the Yankees Entertainment and Sports Network, 60% of which is controlled by George Steinbrenner, donated $100,000 towards airing the ad. Was Howard Dean a threat to the Yankees?

"There's not a single Republican I've talked to in Washington who's not more worried about John Edwards than John Kerry." – Bill Kristol, conservative editor of The Weekly Standard, on Fox News. Edwards is reportedly drawing huge crowds on the campaign trail, too. Ruy Teixeira does a pretty good analysis of the Kerry-Edwards electability argument here. I think it's damn close to a draw.

Patch Adams has endorsed Dennis Kucinich. You gotta believe!

Can you believe that Alabama dropped their ban on interracial marriage just 4 years ago, and only on a 60% to 40% vote by residents? Wow, those Alabamans didn't even need one of those "activist judges" whom Bush so frequently lambastes to prod them towards progress.    

February 22, 2004
I strongly support gay marriages, civil or religious. In fact, I don't think that I've heard an argument against gay marriage that isn't somehow rooted in homophobia and bigotry, and I really believe that 30 years from now gay marriages will be such an accepted norm that people will shake their heads the same way they do at segregation today. For the most part, though, I forgive the majority of Democratic politicians (including John Kerry and John Edwards) for taking the timid but politically pragmatic stance of "I oppose gay marriage, but support equal partnership rights." But when I watched San Francisco Gavin Newsom on CNN's Late Edition today, God I wished more Democrats would join him in taking a courageous public stand. Sure, as mayor of America's most infamously liberal city, Newsom's in a much more convenient position than most Democratic pols to be a vociferous gay marriage advocate, but he's only 36 years old and clearly has ambitions that extend beyond SF and even California.

Watching Newsom today, it was pretty clear to me that he's welcomed the politically risky proposition of becoming a – perhaps THE – leading national advocate for gay marriage. It takes courage, and he's perfect for the role: he's articulate, passionate, and has a hot wife. He certainly has my belief and admiration when, fire in his eyes, he says things like this:
Wolf, guys like me come and go. But there's certain principles I hold dear. And the principle of non-discrimination, of advancing human rights and civil rights, affirming marriage, affirming relationships and families like we've done for 3000+ couples, that's signifigant. That's purposeful. And I believe very strongly what we're doing is appropriate.

February 21, 2004
I'm certainly no expert on trade issues, but during the Clinton years I began to see the necessity of free trade in an increasingly global economy. So it's worried me that it's become a political imperative for Kerry and Edwards to engage in a race to make ever stronger appeals to traditionally more protectionist segments of the Democratic Party. Given we don't stand a chance in most of the South because Republicans have cornered the market on coddling Evangelicals, the NRA, and homophobes, we must win nearly every state in the industrial Midwest; there's no room for error. We can win the political argument – after all, we've got a White House that says plainly that outsourcing is a "good thing" – but I've feared we're in danger of wrongly advocating failed protectionist policies over a more friendly free trade philosophy that's in our long term interests.

But when I listen to Kerry and Edwards talk about trade and look closer at their trade proposals (here's Kerry's and here's Edwards'), I come to the conclusion that these are not my father's protectionists, and that the old "free trade vs. protectionism" debate isn't as stark as it once was. Almost everybody, including labor unions, now recognizes that we're in a global economy, and huge tariffs and quotas don't work. So much of the debate now is really about cracking down on corporate welfare for multi-national corporations and providing tax incentives for American companies to provide American jobs. Substantively, Democrats win here. 

Yes, Edwards specifically mentions that trade agreements should include "strong labor and environmental protections," but his solutions focus not on imposing tariffs or quotas, but on enforcing existing rules in our current trade agreements and incentivizing American businesses to produce at home. Kerry, who's been known as a "free trader" in the Senate, takes pretty much the same approach.

In fact, the only person who's guilty of advocating old-style protectionism in this race is George W. Bush/Karl Rove, who pandered to American steel workers by imposing the steel tariff (which they later revoked, but how can you call yourself a "free trader" when you imposed one of the most highly restrictive tariffs of the decade?).

I'm also highly supportive of Gephardt's proposal for an international minimum wage, and I think it should become a part of the Democratic platform. It may be the single best new policy proposal from a Democrat that I've heard in this campaign.

Trade isn't just a great domestic political issue for us Democrats. It's an opportunity for us to draw more positive, substantial economic policy visions than the Republicans can match.

February 20, 2004
I laughed out loud a couple times while reading this NY Times story about the ingenuity of Bush-Cheney protestors who created some classic street theater outside a BC fundraiser headlined by Karl Rove in New York City the other night. This is priceless:
At one point, as hundreds of guests with invitations waited to pass through velvet barriers to enter the club, a small group of men in bowler hats and women in gowns marched up, chanting, "Four more wars" and "Re-elect Rove."

As the group approached, a man who appeared to be a security agent of some type, was overheard whispering into a microphone: "We've got two groups. One for and one against."

Actually, it was two against. The person was confused by a group that calls itself Billionaires for Bush, a collection of  activists who use satire to make a political point. Indeed, members of the Sierra Club, who were protesting on the other side of the street were also confused and began shouting at what they thought was a pro-Bush contingent.

" We want the truth and we want it now!" the Sierra protesters shouted.

The billionaires shouted back, "Buy your own president!"

It took a few minutes, but the police finally realized what was going on when they escorted the group behind the blue barricades as well. Still, the show was not over. A black town car pulled up and out stepped a man whom who the crowd assumed to be Mr. Rove. "There is Karl Rove," people shouted.

Reporters, photographers and television cameramen swarmed the man,  but the police pushed them back. Another  man lifted the velvet rope to let him enter. But the would-be Mr. Rove walked over to the crowd of protesters and began shaking hands, when finally, again, this was seen to be a joke. It was not Mr. Rove, but an actor playing the part.


Hilarious. I lived in NYC for 9 years and I love it, but I never felt as nostalgic for it as I did while reading those paragraphs.

This may be the best part, though:
Each of the groups has said it  planned to stage similar events when the Republican National Convention comes to New York City from Aug. 30 through Sept. 2.

Aha. Hee hee. I love it.

How in the world are the Republican convention planners going to contain the protests in NYC? Holding their ultimate rally in NYC strikes me as risky in ordinary times, but there's no doubt this is going to be an extremely charged, divisive election, and setting it in the most dynamically Democratic city in the United States is flat out crazy. I think there's a really good chance that a big part of their message will get drowned out in the media by reports on the vitriol of the protestors, and hopefully also the creativity of groups like "Billionaires for Bush."

My hunch is that the brains behind BC assume that your average person gets a viscerally positive feeling when they link Bush and 9/11 in their mind. It's really crass that they so blatantly try to link the two, and very upsetting to me personally that they pimp the tragedy of 9/11 as a political backdrop.

They deserve the price I hope and think they'll have to pay for it.

Yesterday, I mentioned that BC people have hit the airwaves trying to revise history by suggesting Dole was ahead of Clinton at this point in 1996. Here's a link to a bunch of the 1996 CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls; the most relevant totals are probably these:
If Bill Clinton and Bob Dole were the only candidates running for
president in 1996, who would you vote for?

                               Clinton     Dole     
                    
                                     %         %        
    96 Jul 18-21            56        39        
    96 May 9-12            58        38        
    96 Apr 25-28           58        37        
    96 Apr 9-10             57        40        
    96 Mar 15-17           54        42        
    96 Mar 8-10             54        42        
    96 Feb 23-25           56        40        
    96 Jan 26-29            54        42        
    96 Jan 12-15            48        49        
    96 Jan 5-7                46        49        
    95 Dec 15-18           54        43        
    95 Nov 6-8              53        43        
    95 Sep 22-24           50        45        
    95 Aug 28-30          48        48        
    95 Aug 4-7              46        48        
    95 Jul 20-23            49        45        
    95 Jul 7-9                47        48        
    95 Jun 5-6               46        51        
    95 May 11-14         48        48        
    95 Apr 17-19          48        49        
    95 Feb 3-5              45        51        

Look at the jump Clinton got after his State of the Union (Jan 26-29). He never let go after that. Bush, unprecedentedly, lost support after his SOTU this year.

BC are also trying to tell us that Bush's current 51% favorable rating is better than Clinton's was at this time in 1996. That's just a lie:
                       Favor-    Unfav-   
                         able      orable   
                             %         %                       
Bill Clinton   

96 Jul 18-21        62           35      
96 May 9-12        60           39      
96 Mar 15-17       58          38      
96 Feb 23-25       60           37     
96 Jan 12-15        54          44     

In this week's USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll, Bush was 9% below where Clinton was (51% to 60%) in favorability and his unfavorable rating is 9% higher (46% to 37%).

It's fair for Republicans to question what these past and present polls mean, but what they actually say is pretty clear.

The Edwards campaign raised over $700,000 since Wisconsin, $450,000 of that on-line. That's the good news for them.

The bad news for Edwards is that the AFL-CIO endorsed John Kerry. Here's some cogent analysis.

More bad news for Edwards: it looks like Al Sharpton and kucinich! will be joining Kerry and Edwards in the LA Times/CNN debate next Thursday, which is a joke. It's a waste of everybody's time to have the two vanity candidates up there, and robs us of a more substantive debate in which we could draw clearer distinctions between Kerry and Edwards. Shame on the LA Times, CNN, and the DNC.

Back to good news for Edwards: his new speech declaring joblessness a "moral issue" that Bush doesn't understand is brilliant. Edwards treads lightly criticizing Kerry because I think he genuinely wants what's best for the Democratic party (and for his possible VP candidacy), but he still gets his jabs in. With Bush, he punches much harder. These pundits I continue to hear saying that it's not "in his nature" to go for the jugular are just plain wrong. The guy's a brilliant trial lawyer, for crying out loud.

I honestly don't know who I'm gonna vote for in our March 2 primary. I think they're both outstanding choices, though, and I'm happy as can be that it's come down to the two of them.

This Poe News picture gallery of the Rumsfeld Fighting Technique is really funny. 

February 19, 2004
The new CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup poll shows both Kerry and Edwards beating Bush nationally:

KERRY        55%
BUSH           43%

EDWARDS   54%
BUSH            44%

While I think polls like this have very limited predictive value, if I were BC (Bush-Cheney, sounds like VC as in Vietcong), I'd be very concerned about the following 3 realities:
1.    Traditionally, incumbent Presidents who continually fall below the 50% re-elect line in national polls are in dangerous terrain. He's currently in the low 40s in this latest one, not even close.
2.    Despite what BC surrogates will say about the 1996 race (I heard BC Campaign Chair Marc Racicot misremember those polls on Inside Politics today), Bill Clinton took the lead over Bob Dole after his 1996 State of the Union Address and didn't fall behind for a day in any poll before his electoral landslide.
3.    Not only is credibility no longer Bush's bread and butter, it's a weakness. Almost all the polls show about half the country thinking Bush is afflicted with at least occasional bouts of truthlessness. Personal trust in Bush – his "I mean what I say and say what I mean" crap – has been essential to all his previous success; his entire 2000 campaign was based on the "honor and integrity" mantra. BC '04 is now forced to reinvent that, a tough task, especially with this kind of crap.

Also, I think this poll helps John Edwards more than anybody else. It bolsters his electability claims, and his VP credentials. His campaign has already sent out an email touting it.

February 18, 2004
Howard Dean has announced
he'll stop campaigning for the Presidency, but continue to lead his supporters to defeat Bush and Republican members of Congress.

This is good news for Democrats, mostly because Dean's created an unexpected money machine for us. It'll be interesting to see how that machine runs without his candidacy.

The LA Times story on Dean's announcement includes this intriguing paragraph:
A Democratic source said Dean approached Edwards after a debate Sunday night in Milwaukee and the two candidates agreed to confer today. The subject of their conversation was not clear, but there was speculation that Dean, who has recently called Edwards a stronger general election candidate than Kerry, might try to support the North Carolina senator in some way. On Tuesday night, Dean called Edwards to congratulate him on his showing.

My instinct is that a Dean Edwards' endorsement at this point would help mostly by generating positive press for Edwards that showcases him as a realistic Kerry alternative and unifying figure. If there's anything Edwards needs right now, it's free press. But I don't think Dean's money machine would help Edwards a whole lot – even if he could raise it, he's hamstrung by federal caps on what he can spend. On the other hand, Kerry opted out of the federal finance system and could benefit enormously if he finds a way to tap the Dean money machine.

Political Game Notes, Post Wisconsin
•    I had a feeling Edwards would do well yesterday, but nobody I know predicted he'd come within single digits of Kerry, much less 6%. This is now inarguably a two-man race, and the media already has begun framing it that way – most of the morning's papers have Edwards' name alongside Kerry's in their headlines. In fact, the LA Times doesn't even mention the victor in theirs: EDWARDS TAKES A CLOSE SECOND IN WISCONSIN.  
•    Kerry continues to do very well among all Democratic demographics. And as CNN political analyst Bill Schneider said, "There is no evidence that the message Edwards' voters were sending was an anti-Kerry message. Their message was jobs."  This is backed by exit poll data showing 69% of Edwards' own voters saying they would be satisfied if Kerry wins the nomination. But the fact that Kerry's most dominant results come with voters most concerned with who can beat Bush (59% to Edwards' 26% tonight) is worrisome. Perceived electability in Democratic primaries isn't a useful asset Kerry can bring with him into the general election, as opposed to Edwards' proven ability to convince voters he cares about "people like you." And are the voters' perceptions that Kerry's more electable than Edwards right? I don't know. Kerry's Vietnam heroics, decades of experience in foreign and domestic policy, and natural gravitas allow him to leap past many questions voters initially ask of first-time national candidates (particularly post 9/11 national security concerns), but Edwards wears better over time than any candidate I've ever seen. Also, in the last few states, Edwards is showing strength with Independents and Republicans (all registered voters are allowed to vote in Wisconsin's open primary, and Edwards beat Kerry among Independents 40% to 28%), voters we're going to have to win in November. I have two major concerns about Edwards' electability, though: 1) as smart as he is, can he meet the national security threshold? and 2) he's subject to spending caps that would disallow him from spending any $$$ from the end of the primaries to the convention: is there any way he could withstand $150 million of Bush ads against him without countering with ads of his own?
•     As Jeff Greenfield pointed out tonight on CNN, it's going to be interesting to see who CNN invites to their debate scheduled this Monday. DNC rules state that any candidate who gets over 10% in any primary must be invited, but neither Sharpton nor Kucinich! meet that standard (little k got 15% in the Maine caucus, not a primary). Assuming Dean drops out (he has an "event" scheduled for 1pm EST today), I think they should just invite Kerry and Edwards, so we can see them go mano a mano and get into some substance.
•    Edwards, a clean Clinton, is the most dynamic candidate in the race, but Kerry has to fall if he's to rise. While Kerry will be running hard in all 10 Super Tuesday (March 2) contests, Edwards is reportedly only going to focus on Georgia, Ohio, and New York.
Teresa recoils in horror
•    Kerry went to kiss his wife Teresa after his victory speech, and she turned her head away from him kind of awkwardly. I don't think it means anything, but if you play it in slow motion it's a little bit funny and a little bit sorrowful. John and Elizabeth Edwards' post-victory speech hug was much more convincing.
•    The Edwards campaign really screwed up. They advertised his victory speech tonight as the most important speech of his political career. But the Kerry campaign made sure nobody saw it. Kerry rushed to the podium to speak as soon as Edwards went out, and all the networks covered the victor's speech, as they probably should (although who wouldn't have rather seen Edwards' speech, actually?). It seems like a dirty trick, but it's common political stagecraft. In fact, Edwards did it to Dean before Kerry did it to him. I just wonder how the Edwards people didn't find a way to avoid it, like going on before Kerry was projected the winner.
•    Some Democrats want to see Kerry wrap this race up asap so we can focus our energies on fundraising and Bush, and they may be right. But Kerry certainly will improve with a stiff challenge from Edwards, and both stand to continue to benefit from prolonged media attention of a dynamic race, one which has elevated Democrats' favorability ratings nation-wide. Hopefully, they won't saddle each other with anything that would stick in the general. Pretty good odds they'll be the ticket, I think.

In Kentucky yesterday, Democrat Ben Chandler beat Republican Alice Forgy Kerr easily, by 11%, to pickup a seat for Democrats in a district where Bush won in 2000 with 56% of the vote. Many bloggers have been placing a high value on the outcome of this race for awhile now, because they see it as a bellwether and because Chandler has been putting up blogads all over that appear to have really helped his fundraising. I think Kerr's middle name, "Forgy," may have been the biggest reason for her sizable loss. 

February 17, 2004

I've gone back to something from George W. Bush's Meet the Press appearance that I find pretty despicable. In an answer about whether he supported the Vietnam War, Bush added, "And I would have gone had my unit been called up, by the way." Of course, his unit wasn't, and there was about zero chance anybody in Bush's "champagne unit" – as it was nicknamed because of all the political sons that inhabited it – would have been called up. He must know this – the guy's just a liar.

Granted, Bush and his campaign are at a decisive disadvantage in having to go up against Kerry's war record, but that doesn't entitle them to misrepresent his service as something that it wasn't. Listening to his Republican surrogates on the political talk shows lately, I would have thought that Bush actually did fly planes in Vietnam, that there was real risk involved, and that the Guard then was similar to what it is now. Listen to Bush himself earlier in the MTP interview, "I wouldn't denigrate service to the Guard, though, and the reason I wouldn't is because there are a lot of really fine people who have served in the National Guard and who are serving in the National Guard today in Iraq."

The Bush/Cheney campaign and their political talk show mouthpieces have an orchestrated effort underway to suggest that Vietnam-era Guardsmen were in similarly perilous positions to today's Guardsmen, and that's shameful. About a quarter of the approximately 130,000 troops currently in Iraq are National Guard and reservists, and they'd accounted for about 14% of combat deaths as of January. Looking at the service designations in the up-to-date Iraq Casualty List, I think that percentage may have risen slightly in the month since. I can't locate definitive information on how many National Guard served in Vietnam, but namvets.com suggests 9000 went and 22 were KIA.

In his 1996 autobiography, Colin Powell wrote:
I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well-placed... managed to wrangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units...Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country.

Secretary Powell couldn't say the same thing about today's National Guard, because so many are dying.

Bush bragged about his National Guard service in his 2000 campaign biography, his campaign spread glossy photos of him in the Guard to mislead people that he served in Vietnam, he masqueraded as a fighter pilot during the "Mission Accomplished" fiasco, and now he's denigrating the current Guard by suggesting it's the same deal as it was in his "champagne unit" days. You want Democrats to quit asking questions about your Guard service? Fine. Stop mythologizing it and we will.


I predict another big win for Kerry tonight in the Wisconsin primary, but I won't be surprised if John Edwards does better than the latest polls would lead us to expect. I think Kerry will get about 50%, Edwards 30%, and Dean 20%.


Tom DeLay is arguably the most powerful person, Republican or Democrat, in all of Congress. Here's what he said last week: "A woman can take care of the family. It takes a man to provide structure. To provide stability. Not that a woman can't provide stability, I'm not saying that... It does take a father, though."

Somebody ought to tell him it's 2004, not 1904. And that despite his best efforts, progress has been made.

February 16, 2004
Daily Show correspondent Samantha Bee had this to say about filmmaker Michael Moore after General Wesley Clark, whom Moore endorsed, exited the race last week:
"By the way, John, I understand Moore is not taking the General's decision well. I'm told he stopped shaving, put on a little weight, taken to just throwing on a baseball cap instead of comb his hair. He's really let himself go."

That's great comedy.

I rarely agree
with Republican pollster/MSNBC analyst Frank Luntz, but he had his analysis of John Kerry right when he spoke post-debate last night: "Over at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, they should be very nervous. This is not Al Gore, and this is not Michael Dukakis." 

Howard Dean was tough on Kerry last week, but seems to have decided not to hit the frontrunner any more (indeed, even if he insists on continuing his pointless campaign after what I predict will be his distant 3rd place finish Tuesday, his own campaign Chairman plans to back Kerry). John Edwards gave a nice jab at Kerry's lengthy answer to a question on the war when he said, "That's the longest answer to a yes or no question I've ever heard," but besides that focused more on selling himself than beating up Kerry (although Edwards continues to be extremely artful when it comes to subtly drawing distinctions between himself and his opponents, and stealthily hitting them). Left mostly untouched, Kerry continued to go after George Bush and sell himself as a general election candidate, and he maintained his string of near flawless debate performances.

Some of his noteworthy responses:
• After initially turning a question about Bush being AWOL into an opportunity to criticize his administration's veterans' policies, here's what he said about dropping the AWOL issue:
KERRY:  I have suggested to some people who are my advocates who've gone to that line of attack, it's not one that I plan to use, it's not one I have. I don't plan to do that and I've asked them not to. But the president has to speak for his own military record. And those of you in the news media, obviously, have asked questions about it and that's where I'll let it sit.
He made it sound more noble when he said it than it reads now, actually. So he won't be bringing it up directly himself, I suppose, but it's clear he loves this AWOL stuff, especially when it comes in the form of a "What the Vietnam Years Really Tell Us about Bush and Kerry" Newsweek cover.
• He defended himself very vigorously and convincingly against charges that he's beholden to special interests. I think the White House attacks him on this to plant seeds that lead them to establish a pattern of Kerry hypocrisy, but I think it's a little crazy for them to open the door to any discussion about special interest money.
• More explicitly than I've ever heard it, Kerry linked himself to Clinton-era economic fiscal responsibility and growth, which I think we'll be hearing a lot more of:
KERRY: And the same people who helped Bill Clinton put together that plan, the very same people in the White House, the Treasury Department, the OMB, are the same people who are working with me right now to put my plan together. The numbers are real.   It's a promise that can be kept. And if Americans liked the eight years of Bill Clinton's economy, they're going to love the first four years of John Kerry's.  

The most candid and entertaining exchange of the evening took place between Lester Holt and (who else?) Al Sharpton:
HOLT:   I'd actually like to let Reverend Sharpton follow up on that very question.   Do you think that the president knowingly lied, and if so, why?
SHARPTON:   Well, first of all, I think that if he didn't know he was lying and was lying, that's even worse.
(LAUGHTER)
Clearly, he lied.   Now if he is an unconscious liar, and doesn't realize when he's lying, then we're really in trouble.
(LAUGHTER)
Because, absolutely, it was a lie.   They said they knew the weapons were there.   He had members of the administration say they knew where the weapons were.   So we're not just talking about something passing here.   We're talking about 500 lives.   We're talking about billions of dollars.
So I hope he knew he was lying, because if he didn't, and just went in some kind of crazy, psychological breakdown, then we are really in trouble.
Clearly, you know, I'm a minister.   Why do people lie?   Because they're liars.   He lied in Florida  he's lied several times.   I believe he lied in Iraq.

(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
HOLT:   And Reverend, you'll recognize, obviously, calling someone a liar is a very serious charge.   So it does lead to that question...
SHARPTON:   I think he lied.
HOLT:   So it does lead to the question:   Why would he lie?
SHARPTON:   Why do people lie?   I mean, if in my judgment...
HOLT:   I mean, knowing he would be in the position that you're putting him in now, why would he...
SHARPTON:   Well, first of all, Lester, let us look at the facts. The facts are that what they presented to the United Nations, what they presented to the world was not so.   You can only assume that they had to know if they said that they knew where the weapons were, that they knew they didn't know where they were.
And now to come back and tell us that Saddam Hussein is a cruel, despicable person, which we all agree, but we believed him when he told us he had them.   Can you imagine me telling you that I believe somebody that you should never believe, and I brought 500 people to their deaths believing in a man that was as despicable as Hussein, and this is who we're going to have over the troops' lives in this country?
I think that this is absolutely outrageous.   Why he lied?   I think we should give him the rest of his retirement to figure that out and explain to us.

(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)

Some people think this kind of heated rhetoric hurts the Democratic Party, but I think it's one of the things helping us right now. It would hurt us if John Kerry himself were forced to make these kind of heated statements to trumpet Bush's wrongs, but he doesn't have to because Al Sharpton does it for him. In an ordinary election year, throwing around the words "he lied" appears overly aggressive, but Bush has left a treasure-trove of well-documented lies of the most serious sort for Sharpton and other partisans to dwell on. Truth is the best defense. 

By the way, John Edwards also came off really good tonight. He focused on jobs, jobs, jobs like a laser beam, and of course that's the most important issue to a great many Wisconsin voters. I think he's going to finish well behind Kerry on Tuesday, but well ahead of Howard Dean. If a bombshell derails Kerry, he'll be the nominee.

February 15, 2004
You can watch tonight's Wisconsin debate on MSNBC starting at 3:30pm PT. Unfortunately, Sharpton and kucinich! will still be up there.

February 14, 2004
John Kerry racked up two more victories today, the DC caucus and a nonbinding party caucus in Nevada. That brings his victory total to 14 in 16 tries, which is astonishingly impressive considering the competitive field we were looking at pre-Iowa.

He also categorically denied those affair rumors that started kicking around on Thursday. The rumors appear scattered and frivolous, and may not mean much more than that some woman's dad thinks he's a "sleazeball."

It's important to keep in mind how the Republican shit machine spreads stuff like this. Friday's Note gave a pretty good description:
But we do want to highlight one textbook case of how the right cleverly uses the modern media conveyer belt to produce sound and fury about Democrats who they want to take down.

The sequencing is pretty basic: they start by handing something to one or more right-leaning Web sites.

That begets talk radio, which begets cable TV (usually FNC first), which begets a Washington Times story, which leads to other newspaper stories, and then, finally -- pay dirt -- network television coverage.

On Monday, the conservative website NewsMax.com ran a 1970 photo of John Kerry with Jane Fonda. Kerry seems for weeks to have gotten positive mileage in his paid and free media on his Vietnam-era personae, and whoever put the photo out there was clearly hoping to dirty that up with some Hanoi Jane stuff.

And after passing through all the steps above, the picture yesterday found some morning show traction.

Corbis -- who owns the rights to the picture -- tells ABC News that it is a huge seller right now, to the media and others.


So in the Kerry "intern" slime attack (it doesn't look like the alleged woman was even a Kerry intern at all), Drudge posts some nonsense picked up in rants by the established drug-addicted racist Rush Limbaugh and the rumored drug-addicted racist Sean Hannity (see how easy it is to start baseless rumors on the web!) and pretty soon all of the 91% of American talk show hosts who consider themselves conservatives are talking about it, too, and then even some local tv affiliates pick it up and the cable networks and so on.

Democrats don't have any media infrastructure in place to match their organized attack machine, which is one reason why we need our own liberal radio and tv networks. But we do have enough pundits out there to combat the message a little bit, and what I think we should do from now on is match them rumor for rumor. For instance, if Hannity and Colmes (thanks to Al Franken for letting me know the correct printing of the show's name) decide they're gonna have a show about John Kerry's alleged infidelities, then whatever pundit represents the left on that show should refuse to talk about it in any other context apart from George W. Bush's cocaine use, which, unlike Kerry on these current rumors, Bush has taken great pains not to deny.

By the way, I'll have more on the Kerry-Fonda pictures soon...

It looks like Howard Dean will be out of the race by Wednesday.

Happy Valentine's Day to everybody, with special wishes for those gay Americans practicing civil disobedience by getting married in San Francisco. Good for them.

February 13, 2004
As of this writing (3:11am PST), no mainstream news organizations have done any solid reporting substantiating the allegations of a Kerry affair promoted first by Drudge and later by Rush Limbaugh and a few other Neanderthals. John Kerry is scheduled to be on Imus in the Morning today, and Imus is certain to ask him about it.

Yesterday, Drudge's reports on the alleged affair became increasingly defensive. Check out these qualifiers in his latest report:
"Unlike the Monica Lewinsky drama, which first played out publicly in this space, with audio tapes, cigar and a dress, the Kerry situation has posed a challenge to reporters investigating the claims.

"There is no lawsuit testimony this time [like Clinton with Paula Jones]," a top source said Thursday night.  "It is hard to prove.
"

Keep in mind that Drudge doesn't hesitate to post rumors, particularly about progressive-minded politicians. He's posted a number of false stories in the past, including a particularly vicious one accusing Clinton aide Sidney Blumenthal of physically abusing his wife.

Also, go back and look at the Lewinsky story as it was originally posted, look at the level of specificity (he was being fed things second hand by Lucianne Goldberg, who was being fed things first hand by Linda Tripp), and compare it to the lack of specifics in the Kerry rumor. Also, notice how he habitually attributes quotes to "top sources," as he does above, which for all we know could be Drudge himself, his local bartender, or Ann Coulter.

His "top source" suggestion that the Kerry thing "is hard to prove" probably translates into "there's no evidence" in Drudgespeak.

Earlier yesterday, Drudge posted an internal email from CQ's Craig Crawford, who is a reputable journalist, blaming Chris Lehane for pushing the story about Kerry. Lehane, whose nickname is "The Master of Disaster," is a notorious behind-the-scenes political cutthroat who was fired by Kerry earlier this year and later became an advisor to Wes Clark. Drudge removed this post later, but did he originally post it to deflect blame from himself and scapegoat Lehane (who had no response yesterday), if the story isn't more than a story? I wouldn't be surprised. Also, if Crawford's right that this was a reason why Kerry didn't get the VP call from Al Gore, that doesn't jive with Drudge's latest report that Kerry started a relationship with the